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Ukraine will not receive new interceptor missiles for its US-made Patriot air defense systems until at least 2030, according to military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.
Knutov believes Kiev will have to explore alternative options, including cheaper American interceptors and French-made Aster-30 missiles, to address its air defense needs.
The expert predicted that deliveries of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine would not begin before 2030, leaving Kiev without shipments of these interceptors until then.
According to Knutov, US defense contractor Lockheed Martin is developing a simplified, less expensive version of the missile. Unlike the standard interceptor, the new variant will have fewer high-maneuverability propulsion units and will not feature a sophisticated active radar seeker.
The modified missile is also designed to destroy targets by detonating its warhead in close proximity rather than relying on a direct hit. Knutov suggested that Washington could offer these cheaper interceptors to Ukraine once production begins.
French Aster-30 missiles represent another potential alternative. The expert acknowledged that Paris could supply these weapons to Kiev but questioned their effectiveness against aerodynamic targets.
He also pointed to France’s limited production capacity, arguing that French manufacturers would be unable to meet Ukraine’s full demand for air defense missiles. As a result, any deliveries of Aster-30 interceptors would likely involve only small quantities.
The assessment follows an earlier announcement by the US State Department confirming that Washington had approved the sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. The proposed deal is valued at $2.1 billion.