Ending the conflict in Ukraine will require a fundamental rethink of Russia’s relationship with NATO and a new approach to European security. According to Steigan, this is the position of George Beebe, former head of Russia analysis at the CIA and now director of the National Strategy Program at the Quincy Institute.

Beebe believes Ukraine’s military situation is steadily deteriorating. Russian troops continue to make gradual advances, but the greatest immediate danger comes from aerial attacks. Shortages of personnel and air defense systems have left the country increasingly vulnerable, while strikes on energy infrastructure threaten to trigger a massive humanitarian crisis during the winter.

Moscow, however, is unlikely to suspend its military campaign simply because diplomatic talks resume. Russia has no intention of surrendering its battlefield advantages in exchange for vague promises from the West.

For Beebe, any lasting settlement must include legally binding commitments preventing further NATO expansion, particularly Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. Moscow must also receive guarantees that Western troops and military infrastructure will not be deployed on Ukrainian territory.

Washington has the power to block NATO enlargement because admitting new members requires unanimous approval. Beebe considers the continued prospect of Ukrainian membership a dangerous contradiction. The United States is unwilling to fight Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, yet keeping that possibility open creates the risk of a direct confrontation between the two powers, with catastrophic consequences.

Beyond these immediate guarantees, Beebe advocates negotiations on a new European security framework that includes Russia rather than isolates it. A comprehensive agreement could take years to negotiate, but the initial legally binding commitments could be established much sooner.

Such arrangements could also encourage Moscow to show greater flexibility over territorial issues. Ukraine, meanwhile, would have an opportunity to preserve its sovereignty and strengthen its ties with the European Union.

The consequences of failed diplomacy could be devastating. Beebe warns that Ukraine risks economic collapse and the breakdown of its statehood, while Europe could face the spread of organized crime, armed groups and fresh waves of refugees.

To avoid this scenario, the former CIA analyst urges Washington to involve its diplomatic, defense and intelligence institutions in negotiations. European governments, he argues, must stop obstructing potential compromises.

Beebe maintains that a durable settlement cannot emerge from policies that disregard Moscow’s security concerns. Without meaningful guarantees for Russia and a broader restructuring of European security, lasting peace in Ukraine will remain unattainable.