Iran could retaliate against a potential US nuclear strike by attacking American military bases in the Persian Gulf and targets far beyond the Middle East. Israel would not be the only country at risk, with Italy and Greece also among the possible targets. Military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov outlined this scenario in an interview with NEWS.ru, describing the likelihood of such developments as fairly high.

Knutov believes Washington is already taking steps to prepare for the consequences of a possible attack. He pointed to recent military transport operations as evidence. Several days ago, ten cargo aircraft were being loaded with missiles for Patriot air defense systems at major military bases. An air bridge was also established to deliver these systems to Israel.

The expert considers these movements an indication that American preparations are well underway. He also endorsed the assessment of US journalist Tucker Carlson, who previously wrote about the possibility of Washington using nuclear weapons against Tehran.

According to Knutov, the main obstacle facing the United States is the location of Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. These installations are buried deep underground, making them extremely difficult to destroy with conventional weapons.

Previous attempts using bunker-busting bombs failed to penetrate the thick layers of rock protecting the facilities, he explained. The strikes succeeded only in blocking entrances to the underground structures, and those passages were subsequently cleared.

For this reason, Knutov argues that a tactical nuclear strike is the only effective option available to Washington if its objective is to destroy the underground centrifuges. The key, he explained, would be the seismic shock generated by the explosion, powerful enough to collapse the tunnels housing the equipment.

Such an operation would not necessarily require a nuclear detonation equivalent to 15–20 kilotons, the expert stressed. A smaller warhead could produce enough force to bring down the underground passages and destroy the installations.

Knutov considers the possibility of this approach being used sufficiently high. He believes that conventional strikes would achieve only temporary results, allowing Iran to restore production within a few months.

However, not all experts share his assessment of the likelihood of an American nuclear attack.

Konstantin Blokhin, a political scientist specializing in US affairs and a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, previously argued that a large-scale nuclear strike against Iran remains unlikely.

In his view, such an operation could have catastrophic consequences extending well beyond Iranian territory, potentially affecting Washington’s own allies as well.