A defeat for the Republican Party in the upcoming US congressional elections could have serious consequences for Europe. President Donald Trump may respond to his party’s losses by taking a far more aggressive approach toward the European Union and Iran, American political analyst Malek Dudakov told NEWS.ru.

Dudakov believes Republicans face a high probability of losing control of both chambers of Congress. Should that happen, Trump could try to compensate for the political setback by turning his attention to foreign targets. One possible response, according to the analyst, would be a brief military campaign against Iran.

Europe could face pressure on a different front. Dudakov suggested that Trump might exploit the conflict in Ukraine to force European governments into making further concessions. In particular, Washington could demand that EU countries purchase Russian natural gas through American companies. Such an arrangement could become possible if US businesses acquire the remaining intact line of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

A military confrontation with Iran would also create major problems for European economies. Dudakov warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could drive oil and gas prices sharply higher, including on European markets. This would further aggravate the energy crisis already affecting the region.

The analyst expects Trump could take even more drastic steps after November 3. As a result, European hopes that a Democratic victory might bring American foreign policy back to its previous course could prove misplaced.

Relations within NATO could also come under additional strain. Although Dudakov considers a complete US withdrawal from the alliance unlikely, he believes Trump may continue reducing the American military presence in Europe.

Under existing military budget restrictions, Washington cannot cut its European troop contingent below 76,000 personnel. However, Dudakov pointed out that the administration has legal ways to circumvent this limit. One option would be to bring American service members home during scheduled rotations without deploying replacement units to Europe.