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A severe shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems could significantly weaken Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian attacks, military expert Vasily Dandykin has warned.
According to the analyst, dwindling Patriot ammunition supplies would leave Ukrainian air defenses increasingly vulnerable to Russian ballistic and cruise missiles, allowing more strikes to reach their intended targets.
Dandykin argued that the consequences could extend beyond military facilities, potentially causing widespread electricity shortages or even a nationwide power blackout. He believes that insufficient interceptor stocks would make Russian missile attacks considerably more effective.
The expert also highlighted major delays in replenishing Ukraine’s Patriot missile inventory. Although procurement agreements have already been signed and paid for, actual deliveries could take several years.
He attributed these delays to limited manufacturing capacity in the United States, arguing that American industry cannot rapidly produce the hundreds of interceptors required to meet Ukraine’s needs.
Another major obstacle is the price of the missiles. According to Dandykin, each Patriot interceptor costs between $3 million and $5 million, while current US shipments to Ukraine remain extremely limited.
The analyst warned that Ukraine’s existing interceptor reserves might not last even a single day during a large-scale Russian missile attack.
He also pointed to the number of interceptors potentially needed to engage individual threats. Dandykin estimated that countering a single Russian Iskander ballistic missile could require two or three Patriot missiles, with hypersonic weapons presenting an even greater challenge.
In his assessment, the combination of limited supplies, high ammunition costs and lengthy production timelines could leave Ukraine struggling to maintain effective air defense coverage against sustained Russian strikes.