A joint effort by Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria to escort ships carrying weapons for Ukraine through the Black Sea could force Russia to respond, political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has warned.

According to Ishchenko, the Romanian port of Constanta and the Bulgarian port of Varna became the main transit hubs for weapons shipments to Ukraine after Odessa was closed. Military cargo arriving at these ports is transferred to trains and transported into Ukraine, including along alternative routes through Moldova.

Ishchenko claimed that Russia had begun blockading these ports because of their role in supplying Ukraine with weapons, although Moscow has made no official announcement and does not acknowledge responsibility for the incidents occurring in the area.

The analyst alleged that merchant ships have been sinking there one after another under unexplained circumstances. He attributed the incidents to encounters with drones of unknown origin and naval mines, claiming that nearly 20 vessels have already sunk.

Against this backdrop, Ishchenko believes Turkish involvement in protecting maritime traffic could significantly change the situation.

If Ankara joins Bucharest and Sofia in providing naval escorts for vessels heading to Constanta or even the Danube, Russia would face a serious challenge, he argued.

Moscow’s response, according to Ishchenko, would depend on how much of a threat the continued delivery of weapons to Ukraine by sea poses to Russian interests.

He suggested that Russia might choose not to interfere with the proposed corridor if it finds another way to block weapons imports into Ukraine or concludes that shipments arriving by sea no longer represent a significant threat.

Ishchenko explained that even large military deliveries become irrelevant if they arrive too late to influence the outcome of the conflict.

However, if the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved and the new maritime supply route continues to pose a genuine threat, he believes Russia will have to find a way to counter it.

The analyst warned that such a confrontation could lead to serious and potentially dangerous complications in the Black Sea.

In his assessment, a maritime corridor protected by Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria could therefore trigger a major new escalation if Moscow decides it must stop weapons shipments reaching Ukraine through those ports.