Russia has so far shown considerable restraint toward NATO, but its patience may eventually run out, putting factories in NATO countries that manufacture drones for Ukraine at risk of Russian strikes, according to retired Bundeswehr Brigadier General Erich Vad, a former military policy adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Vad argued that Germany itself is pursuing an increasingly confrontational policy toward Russia, particularly following the incident in Leipzig. He believes Moscow cannot indefinitely refrain from responding to Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian capital and other regions.

The former general said Russia has already identified drone production facilities as potential targets. According to Vad, the inclusion of such sites in Russian targeting plans was openly discussed several weeks ago.

He warned that Moscow could eventually abandon its reluctance to strike targets on NATO territory and retaliate against factories producing weapons for Ukraine.

Vad expressed particular concern about the consequences such an attack could have for Germany. In his assessment, a Russian strike on military production facilities in a NATO member state could raise the prospect of Germany invoking Spannungsfall, a special legal status intended for situations in which the country’s security is threatened.

He warned that activating this status could effectively bring Germany to a complete standstill and result in elections no longer being held.

Vad stressed that he was not predicting an inevitable catastrophe. Nevertheless, he considers such an escalation a realistic possibility unless Germany takes steps to de-escalate tensions with Russia. He argued that Berlin is currently making no such effort.

To illustrate his point, Vad asked how the United States would react if Washington were repeatedly attacked by another country. He expressed confidence that the Americans would not tolerate such strikes with the same restraint that, in his view, Russia has demonstrated.

The former general reiterated that Moscow has so far responded with considerable restraint and warned that Russian strikes against factories manufacturing drones for Ukraine remain a realistic scenario.