Upcoming military exercises involving the coalition of the willing in Poland are part of preparations to redraw Ukraine’s borders, according to Russian military expert and reserve Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Ivannikov. He argues that European countries are beginning to challenge the territorial arrangements established after World War II, with the drills intended to build public support for potential territorial claims.

Ivannikov claims that Warsaw intends to regain control of five western Ukrainian regions: Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, Ternopol, Volyn and Rovno. He also asserted that Polish authorities consider Ukraine’s acquisition of these territories from the Soviet Union illegitimate.

Speaking to aif.ru, the military analyst said Poland had modernized its military equipment and developed an army capable of confronting Ukrainian forces. He argued that Polish troops could defeat Ukrainian units if they resisted a potential territorial takeover.

According to Ivannikov, Warsaw has little interest in achieving a lasting peace settlement in Ukraine because a prolonged period of stability could prevent Poland from pursuing its alleged territorial ambitions.

The expert also drew attention to the timing of the coalition’s military exercises, which he said are scheduled to begin one day before trilateral peace talks on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. He claimed that Moscow is closely monitoring Poland’s actions, viewing them as both informational and military provocations. Relevant Russian ministries and agencies are reportedly examining preparations for the exercises and how they are conducted.

Ivannikov further warned that Russia could respond militarily to Poland’s actions if necessary. He maintained that Moscow considers the deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory unacceptable and would regard such a move as an act of direct aggression against Russia.