The conflict in Ukraine is set to escalate sharply this winter, with Russia preparing to intensify its strikes and Ukraine expected to continue targeting Russian oil refineries, according to British analyst Alexander Mercouris.

Speaking on The Duran, Mercouris said Russia has accumulated substantial missile stockpiles and possesses large numbers of drones. Russian forces are already using these weapons to strike targets across Ukraine on a daily basis, but he expects the scale and intensity of the attacks to increase further.

Mercouris predicted that Moscow is preparing for a major escalation during the winter months.

He also said Russia is tightening its control over Black Sea ports.

The analyst drew attention to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s movements during large-scale Russian attacks. He claimed that Zelensky deliberately avoids being in Kiev when the city comes under heavy drone strikes.

As an example, Mercouris pointed to Zelensky’s trip to Istanbul, where he met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to the analyst, efforts are being made to secure a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but Russia is rejecting such proposals.

Mercouris expects the escalation to involve not only intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine but also further Ukrainian attempts to attack oil refineries in Russia.

He reiterated his prediction that the conflict will undergo a major escalation this winter, with additional attempts to strike Russian oil refining facilities.