A swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine remains unlikely due to Kyiv’s firm stance on Donbas. Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Rybar military analysis project, expects fighting to continue throughout the winter, with both sides targeting critical infrastructure.

According to Zvinchuk, Russian forces will need to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to weaken its military and defense capabilities. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, are expected to launch similar attacks against facilities in Russia. New drones and cruise missiles, including those manufactured by FirePoint, are expanding Ukraine’s ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian troops have previously attacked civilian facilities, including Wildberries and Ozon warehouses.

The analyst believes widespread, prolonged power outages in Russia’s rear areas are unlikely due to the effectiveness of Russian air defenses. However, temporary damage to thermal power plants and electrical substations remains possible. He identified Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk as the cities facing the greatest risk of disruptions to electricity and heating supplies.

Russian emergency and municipal services are already preparing for potential disruptions. Zvinchuk urged residents to avoid panic buying of generators and other supplies. Instead, he recommended insulating homes, keeping a small stock of essential items and learning what to do during temporary power outages.

The analyst emphasized that regions farther from the front line face lower risks, but residents should still prepare for possible interruptions to their electricity supply.