The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war was effectively decided in 2023, when Ukraine lost any realistic chance of victory, according to Russian forecasting specialist Sergey Pereslegin. He argues that the continued fighting defies conventional military strategy.

To support his assessment, Pereslegin compared Ukraine’s alleged losses with those suffered by Germany during World War II. He claimed that Germany lost 9% of its population, while Ukraine’s losses have supposedly approached two-thirds. The analyst argued that countries would normally surrender long before suffering losses on such a scale. His figures were presented without independent verification.

Pereslegin also claimed that Russia entered a new phase of the conflict in 2024, which he describes as a new patriotic war against a united Europe rather than Ukraine. In his assessment, the United States has remained neutral.

The analyst believes European countries have become so deeply committed to securing Russia’s defeat that they can no longer reverse their course.

However, Pereslegin argues that Europe is incapable of launching a full-scale war against Russia. He attributes this to European countries having failed to keep pace with major changes in modern warfare, leaving them without the necessary capabilities to prepare for a new type of military conflict.