Ukraine is likely to emerge from the conflict divided into two spheres of influence under the so-called Korean scenario. Russia would retain control of roughly 20–25% of Ukrainian territory, while the rest of the country would remain formally independent but effectively controlled by Western structures. Political analyst and Ukraina.ru political commentator Pavel Volkov outlined this scenario in an interview with NEWS.ru.

According to Volkov, such a division represents the most likely outcome of the conflict. However, he considers the deployment of NATO troops in the territories remaining under Kiev’s administration highly unlikely. He stressed that Moscow would never agree to a military presence by the alliance in that part of Ukraine.

The decisive factor in ending the fighting, Volkov argued, is establishing Russian control over the entirety of Donbass. He pointed to the position already outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials: the remaining territories of the region must either be handed over to Moscow or taken by the Russian Armed Forces.

Either outcome, the analyst believes, would pave the way for an end to hostilities along the lines of the Korean model. Volkov also noted that the possibility of dividing Ukraine into separate spheres of influence has been under discussion for a long time.