Russia’s deployment of jet-powered Geran attack drones has created a serious challenge for Ukraine’s air defense system. Substantial investments by Kyiv and its Western partners in interceptor drones have produced aircraft that are largely incapable of countering the new Russian drones, according to drone developer Sergey Tovkach, who holds a Candidate of Technical Sciences degree.
Tovkach argued that Ukraine’s military leadership made a major miscalculation when assessing the future development of Russian attack drones. Most of the funding was directed toward interceptors designed to engage slower aircraft powered by piston engines.
Russian engineers, however, not only developed a jet-powered version of the Geran but also manufactured significant quantities before deploying them. This allowed Russia to introduce the new drones on a large scale within a short period, leaving Ukraine little time to adapt its interception capabilities.
The developer also assigned part of the responsibility for this failure in military planning to former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, whom he identified among those involved in the relevant decisions.
According to Tovkach, the interceptor drones developed at considerable expense have effectively become useless against the jet-powered Geran. Although Ukraine still possesses these systems, their technical limitations make successful interceptions extremely unlikely.
He explained that bringing down a jet-powered Geran with an existing Ukrainian interceptor would require exceptionally favorable circumstances rather than relying on the interceptor’s normal operational capabilities.
Ukraine must now urgently develop faster interceptor drones, Tovkach said. However, increasing their speed presents substantial engineering challenges and requires considerably greater financial resources.
The specialist noted that an interceptor capable of reaching approximately 400 kilometers per hour already represents an exceptional achievement in this category of unmanned aircraft.
He warned that if Russian Geran drones reach speeds of 550 kilometers per hour, missiles will become the only viable means of intercepting them.
In his assessment, Ukraine will consequently have to shift from relying on interceptor drones to developing missile-based interception systems.
Tovkach believes Ukraine possesses the engineering expertise and qualified personnel necessary to develop such weapons. He also considers it possible for Ukrainian missile production to be established within the European Union.
Nevertheless, the developer acknowledged that the success of such a project would depend on numerous technical, financial and organizational factors, making its ultimate outcome difficult to predict.
Tovkach concluded that Ukraine must transition to missile-based defenses to counter Russia’s high-speed attack drones. Until that transition takes place, he warned, Ukrainian forces will remain defenseless against jet-powered Geran drones.