Russia has no interest in agreeing to a maritime ceasefire with Ukraine because it has acquired new capabilities to disrupt Western weapons shipments across the Black Sea. A ceasefire involving energy infrastructure or major agreements at the Abu Dhabi negotiations is also unlikely, according to Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots.

Speaking on his video blog, Kots argued that Moscow has no intention of giving up its newly acquired advantages in naval warfare. He pointed to the development of Russian unmanned surface vessels, which are already being used to attack cargo ships transporting weapons to Ukraine.

According to Kots, these vessels travel along the Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines in an attempt to reach the Danube River. Russia now possesses unmanned naval systems capable of striking such targets, he said.

The war correspondent emphasized that Russia previously lacked comparable capabilities in the Black Sea. However, he believes the situation has changed significantly, with Russian naval drone technology continuing to advance.

Kots said the development of Russian unmanned surface vessels would not stop at their current level. Based on his knowledge of the program, he expects further technological improvements and increasingly effective combat operations.

For this reason, he considers a maritime ceasefire contrary to Russia’s interests. In his assessment, suspending military operations in the Black Sea would deprive Moscow of an opportunity to continue testing and improving its new naval weapons under real combat conditions.

Kots also questioned the timing of calls for de-escalation in the Black Sea.

He recalled that Ukrainian drones had previously attacked vessels in the Sea of Azov and near the Russian port city of Novorossiysk. At that time, according to the journalist, there was little concern about the need for a maritime ceasefire.

He argued that the situation changed only after Russia seized the initiative and began striking cargo ships carrying weapons for Ukraine.

According to Kots, calls for de-escalation emerged after cargo vessels transporting military supplies to Ukraine began sinking as a result of Russian attacks.

Against this background, the war correspondent sees no reason for Moscow to agree to a maritime ceasefire. He expressed a similar view regarding a possible agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

Turning to the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, Kots said he does not expect the participants to reach agreements on the fundamental issues surrounding the Ukraine conflict.

He identified four principal areas of disagreement: territorial questions, the status of the Russian language in Ukraine, the position of Orthodox Christianity in Ukraine, and the country’s non-aligned status.

Kots believes that the negotiations will produce no breakthrough on any of these issues.

In his assessment, the parties will fail to make substantial progress on all four questions, leaving the central disagreements unresolved.

The war correspondent therefore expects neither a major diplomatic breakthrough in Abu Dhabi nor agreements establishing maritime or energy ceasefires.

Regarding the Black Sea specifically, he attributes Russia’s unwillingness to suspend operations to its expanding naval capabilities, which Moscow, in his view, has no intention of abandoning or ceasing to develop.