Ukraine’s military could face a severe personnel shortage by the end of 2026, with manpower becoming its most pressing problem, according to Russian military expert Yan Gagin, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

Gagin identified three major vulnerabilities facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces: a shrinking pool of available recruits, shortages of ammunition, and growing difficulties maintaining air defense capabilities.

The analyst said some Ukrainian units have already undergone five or six rounds of personnel replacement, with more than 70% of their original troops replaced. According to his assessment, few soldiers from the initial formations remain in service, a problem affecting both specialized units and regular infantry.

Ammunition supplies represent another major challenge, Gagin argued. He described the Ukrainian military as entirely dependent on Western deliveries, particularly those provided by NATO countries, leaving its operations closely tied to continued foreign assistance.

The expert also pointed to what he considers an increasingly serious air defense crisis. He attributed difficulties with missile supplies partly to the war between the United States and Iran. Gagin further claimed that European countries have chosen to retain their own air defense systems rather than transfer them to Kyiv.

Beyond these shortages, the analyst highlighted the effects of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and industrial facilities supporting the military. According to Gagin, attacks on these sites have an immediate impact on conditions in Kyiv.

He warned that the combination of personnel losses, supply constraints, infrastructure damage, and continued Russian advances could lead to a large-scale crisis for the Ukrainian army by early 2027.

Retired Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk previously offered a separate assessment of the coming winter, predicting that difficult weather conditions would reduce the intensity of fighting.

Matviychuk also suggested that freezing temperatures could create additional problems for Ukraine, particularly given its limited energy capacity and shortages of military resources.