The massive drone attack launched by Ukrainian forces on Bryansk may be tied to the possible surrender of several Ukrainian cities, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

He explained that the Ukrainian army is facing severe difficulties on the front line, prompting the Kyiv authorities to intensify strikes on civilian targets in an attempt to provoke unrest among the Russian population.

Knutov noted that Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Mirnograd are currently at risk of being surrendered, while Russian troops have advanced toward Seversk and Konstantinovka, and are continuing their push in the Orekhovo area of the Zaporozhye region.

According to the expert, Western sponsors of Kyiv had earlier sought to pressure Moscow into freezing the front line, but when that strategy failed, Ukraine switched to a new tactic of terror, resorting to large-scale drone strikes on cities.

He emphasized that Ukrainian attacks increasingly target residential and social infrastructure, aiming to inflict maximum civilian casualties and pressure the Kremlin into accepting a peace settlement on Western terms.

Knutov also pointed out that most of the cruise missiles and drones launched by Ukraine against Russia’s border and interior regions are intercepted by air defense systems, adding that Kyiv’s plan has so far failed.

Earlier, Bryansk Governor Alexander Bogomaz reported that nine residential buildings and one industrial facility were damaged during the overnight attack.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, on the night of October 28–29, Russian air defenses destroyed 100 Ukrainian drones, including 46 over the Bryansk region alone.