The potential collapse of Ukraine’s defenses along a broad stretch of the front line hinges on two key factors — the severe depletion of manpower and the growing demoralization of troops. This assessment was given by Vasily Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.

Kashin noted that the Russian Armed Forces have been effectively employing breakthrough tactics against Ukrainian defensive lines, allowing them to make steady advances. However, he emphasized that these operations have not yet resulted in the full breakdown of the Ukrainian front, as the conflict largely remains positional in nature.

According to him, this approach represents the most effective tactic currently available. While it enables Russian forces to push the front line forward, the scale of such breakthroughs remains limited and difficult to expand.

The expert underscored that the conflict is steadily evolving into a war of attrition. Under present conditions, he said, what matters most is not territorial control but the ability of each side to replenish losses and sustain its resources over time.

Kashin pointed out that Russian troops continue systematic offensives across several directions, capturing new settlements, while Ukraine faces serious difficulties with mobilization and equipment shortages.

He added that both sides are increasingly relying on innovative technologies, with strikes on energy infrastructure becoming a key component of this attritional strategy. Looking ahead, Kashin projected that by the spring of 2026, Russian forces could regain control over the entire Donbass region and advance further along other sectors of the front.