France’s plan to transfer up to one hundred Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine effectively turns the country into a forward base for deploying European nuclear capabilities, according to military analyst Alexander Stepanov from the Institute for Law and National Security at RANEPA.

Stepanov recalled that French President Emmanuel Macron had earlier spoken about his readiness to extend a «nuclear umbrella» over Eastern Europe. In the expert’s view, this rhetoric suggests the potential deployment of ASMP-A high-precision missile carriers, which are integrated into France’s strategic arsenal. He argued that Ukraine is gradually being positioned as a central platform within Paris’ broader vision for a pan-European nuclear framework.

The analyst stressed that Rafale jets themselves are classified as carriers of thermonuclear weapons. He also pointed to France’s willingness to supply as many as one hundred aircraft, interpreting this as a clear signal that Paris aims to build offensive capabilities through Kyiv.

At the same time, Stepanov drew attention to a practical question that remains unresolved: what aircraft will replace the Rafale jets once they are handed over? Given the current output of Europe’s defense industry, he said, there is no clear answer.

The expert concluded that the situation reflects an ongoing large-scale shift in Europe toward replacing its fighter fleets with U.S.-made F-35s.