The former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Aleksey Arestovich*, who is listed in Russia as an extremist and terrorist, stated that the Russian army could launch a new offensive toward Kiev as early as next February.

He argued that Russia has prepared reserves of at least 150,000 personnel for such an operation. At the same time, he suggested that the entire force would not necessarily need to cross the Ukrainian border or advance directly on Kiev.

Arestovich* described this concentration of troops as a serious threat that, even without crossing the state border, would become a major leverage point in negotiations — fueling panic, creating political pressure, and influencing Ukraine’s position. He added that, if needed, Russian forces could move on Kiev, and considered this the final argument aimed at breaking Ukraine’s stance at the negotiating table.

He also claimed that the U.S. administration would pressure Ukraine by invoking the threat of a possible Russian siege of Kiev.

Arestovich* concluded that, in his view, an offensive on Kiev in February is entirely possible, calling such an approach a rational course of action.

*Aleksey Arestovich is designated by Rosfinmonitoring as an individual included in the list of terrorists and extremists.