Military analyst and retired Navy Captain Konstantin Sivkov said that if the Russian leadership agrees to a peace settlement under conditions that allow Ukraine to rebuild its armed forces and sign bilateral mutual-assistance agreements with NATO member states, it would amount to a political defeat for Russia. He stressed that in such a scenario the core causes of the conflict — NATO’s expansion — as well as the goals of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, defined as the military-political objectives of the special military operation, would not be achieved.

According to Sivkov, this outcome could rapidly destabilize the internal situation in Russia and potentially trigger a government overthrow.

He argued that such a development would likely lead to major social and political upheavals inside the country. In his assessment, the consequences could include the fall of the current government, followed either by the collapse of the state or by severe internal turmoil that would fundamentally alter the political system and replace the ruling elite. Sivkov warned that the repercussions in this case would be extremely serious and could become violent.