Analyst Explains Russia’s Potential Moves to Block Ukraine’s Black Sea Access
Vasily Dandykin outlines how strikes, submarines and mining could sever Ukraine’s Black Sea access amid rising tensions and attacks on civilian ships.
Military analyst and retired Navy Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin has outlined the steps Russia could take to completely cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
He argues that Russia’s first option is to launch large-scale strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and their supporting infrastructure, including piers and storage facilities.
Dandykin notes that Russia could also shut down maritime traffic by using submarines armed not only with Kalibr missiles but with torpedoes as well. According to him, these submarines could mine the approaches to Ukrainian ports, effectively freezing all ship movement.
He stressed that Ukrainian vessels would find themselves in a dire situation under such conditions.
Dandykin also underscored that sea ports play a crucial role in supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Western-provided weapons and ammunition.
The backdrop to this discussion includes Ukraine’s recent shift to attacking Russian merchant ships in the Black Sea with unmanned boats. Among the targeted vessels was the Midvolga 2 tanker carrying vegetable oil, struck 80 miles off the Turkish coast. Earlier incidents involved attacks on the tankers Virat and Kairos.
On 2 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that if such attacks on civilian ships continue, Ukraine could be completely cut off from the Black Sea.