Military expert Yuri Knutov believes a major turning point has taken place in the special operation zone in favor of the Russian army, though he argues it is still too early to speak of a complete collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ front line.

Knutov describes the situation for the Ukrainian military as extremely difficult. He cites data suggesting that along some stretches of the front there are only 5–7 Ukrainian soldiers per kilometer. In his view, such a low density of manpower opens up opportunities for Russian units to infiltrate Ukrainian defensive lines, build up forces in the gaps and then move on to liberate populated areas.

According to his estimates, the Ukrainian army is facing a sharp shortage of personnel. Knutov says monthly losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are around 50,000 people, while just over 30,000 soldiers arrive at the front over the same period. As a result, he concludes, the overall strength of the Ukrainian army is shrinking by roughly one division every month.

The expert adds that the situation for Kiev is further complicated by mounting discontent within Ukrainian society. Many citizens, he notes, are already tired of the war, and frustration has been fuelled by the fact that no one has been held accountable following a high-profile corruption scandal in the country.

At the same time, Knutov stresses that it is premature to claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been decisively defeated. He points out that European countries continue to actively support Kiev. In his opinion, if the United States were to cut Ukraine off from satellite intelligence and disable access to the Starlink system, the Ukrainian front, as he puts it, would collapse within two weeks.