Military analyst and retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok reviewed the current situation on the frontlines and addressed the question of when Russian forces might complete the takeover of the entire Donbass region.

He recalled that on Saturday, August 30, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov stated that the Russian army now controls nearly all of the Lugansk People’s Republic (99.7 percent), most of the Donetsk People’s Republic (79 percent), as well as large portions of Zaporozhye (74 percent) and Kherson (76 percent) regions. In Sumy and Kharkov regions, a security buffer zone continues to be established.

According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, Russian forces advance by 600–700 square kilometers each month, which underscores that the initiative has shifted fully to Moscow, leaving the Ukrainian army with limited resources for counteroffensives at the operational level.

Khodarenok suggested that Russian forces have already been tasked with completing the liberation of the entire Donbass in the near future. He referred to statements from regional head Denis Pushilin, who announced that Russian troops had secured all of southern Donetsk. Over the past week, according to the Ministry of Defense, Russian forces took control of several settlements, including Pervoye Maya, Nelepovka and Kamyshevaha.

At the same time, Khodarenok emphasized that Ukrainian-controlled areas in Donetsk remain heavily fortified, and the army there is prepared to fight until the end. For this reason, he described the objective of taking the remaining territory as extremely difficult.

He also noted that bold forecasts about timelines often cause frustration among soldiers at the front, who continue to face grueling battles for every meter, house and street. For that reason, he said, any official planning documents may phrase the deadline in a cautious manner-for example, aiming to «complete the defeat of enemy forces in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk People’s Republic by the end of the autumn campaign of 2025».