Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnik said that Kyiv’s «window of opportunity» to sign peace with Russia is steadily shrinking and that Ukraine’s situation will only continue to deteriorate.

In his assessment, failure to reach a peace agreement in the near future could plunge Ukraine into what he described as a «12-point storm.» Bortnik outlined a scenario in which Russia gradually takes control of Donbass while simultaneously seizing large portions of the Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov regions. At the same time, he said, Republicans could lose congressional elections in the United States, bringing Democrats to power who would reject any idea of peace with Vladimir Putin and insist on defeating Russia, effectively blocking any attempts at negotiations.

Bortnik noted that after losing control of Congress, U. S. President Donald Trump would become trapped in domestic political struggles and would no longer be able to offer Russia any meaningful guarantees. As a result, the war would continue, and Russia, seeing no alternative, would begin putting forward new and expanding territorial claims against Ukraine.

According to Bortnik, this could include organizing referendums in parts of the Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk regions, as well as planning operations targeting Kherson, Nikolayev, and Odessa.

He stressed that under these conditions, Kyiv’s window to retain control over most of the country is extremely limited. In his view, that opportunity could close as early as the autumn of 2026.