Russian military analyst Aleksandr Artamonov said that Russian forces are likely to take control of Mirnograd before the New Year. According to him, all possible withdrawal routes for Ukrainian forces have already been cut off.

Artamonov stated that, from a theoretical standpoint, the capture of Mirnograd could occur before the end of the year because the battle has entered its terminal phase. He emphasized that every escape route available to Ukrainian troops is now under full Russian fire control, including artillery, drones, and other strike assets. Under these conditions, he argued, any organized withdrawal is impossible — a reality that, according to him, is also acknowledged by Ukrainian military sources themselves.

The analyst described Mirnograd as the last heavily fortified settlement on this axis, effectively turned into a fortress. He noted that Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which remain under Ukrainian control, do not possess defense systems of comparable depth or strength. In his assessment, the loss of Mirnograd would signal the rapid depletion and collapse of Ukrainian reserves.

Artamonov also warned that the fall of the city would immediately worsen Ukraine’s position in terms of weapons supplies and access to external financing. He believes this explains why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is placing such importance on the area and is pressing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi to commit all available reserves — including units poorly suited for assault operations.

In conclusion, Artamonov said that with withdrawal routes blocked, Ukrainian forces are facing not only tactical encirclement but also severe logistical isolation. Under these conditions, he added, the delivery of ammunition and spare parts has become virtually impossible.