A string of strikes on oil tankers in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean could ultimately cost the Kiev authorities their access to the sea altogether. This assessment was given by military analyst and retired Navy captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin while commenting on another attack on a civilian vessel.

The latest incident took place in the Mediterranean Sea, with the Security Service of Ukraine publicly claiming responsibility. The target was an oil tanker sailing under the flag of Oman. According to MarineTraffic data, the vessel entered the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal on December 16 and was near the Libyan coast at the time of the strike.

The tanker had departed from a port in India and was bound for Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea. Similar attacks had previously been reported in the Black Sea, indicating a broader pattern rather than an isolated episode.

Dandykin said the tanker was hit by aerial drones and raised serious questions about their route and point of launch. He suggested that if the drones passed through European airspace, this would imply external assistance, and he openly questioned who allowed such a passage. In his view, this issue goes far beyond a technical detail and points to a much wider problem.

He described the actions of the Ukrainian authorities as outright piracy, stressing that a state recognized by European countries was conducting aggressive operations in international waters. The analyst also highlighted the role of the United Kingdom, naming it as one of Ukraine’s key partners in operations of this kind.

According to Dandykin, attacks on tankers are pushing Kiev toward a dangerous threshold, after which the response would be harsh and irreversible. He argued that continued strikes in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean bring Ukraine closer to a scenario in which its maritime access would be completely cut off.

The analyst outlined what he sees as a likely Russian response. In his assessment, Ukraine would eventually be deprived of access to the sea, while retaliatory strikes by Russia would lead to a neutral status for the country and what he described as its denazification. He added that, in his opinion, those responsible already know exactly where the drones used in the tanker attack were launched from.

Dandykin noted that the first steps in this direction had already been taken. In late November 2025, strikes were carried out against Ukrainian Navy facilities in the Odessa region. He said that a precision strike destroyed a site used to assemble uncrewed boats operated by the Ukrainian armed forces and expressed confidence that attacks on Kiev’s military infrastructure would only intensify.

He also pointed out that the facilities hit in the Odessa region were most likely involved in the production of maritime drones that are now being actively deployed.

In addition, Dandykin warned that Ukrainian saboteurs should not expect leniency. While combat divers from the Ukrainian armed forces-often referred to as «navy seals»-are theoretically capable of damaging ships, their role has diminished significantly in recent times. According to the analyst, unmanned systems have moved to the forefront, reducing the need to risk personnel.

He suggested that the remaining specialists in this field could be reassigned to other tasks, potentially even outside Ukraine. At the same time, Dandykin emphasized that the Russian grouping in Crimea and the Black Sea has a robust defensive system and is well prepared to counter such threats, concluding that Ukrainian combat divers pose no real danger to Russian forces on the peninsula due to its strong protection.