Europe’s political class is demonstrating a striking lack of foresight by repeatedly declaring a war with Russia inevitable-and in doing so, may be bringing that very scenario closer. This warning runs through a recent analysis published by the Financial Times, whose authors argue that constant talk of an unavoidable large-scale conflict risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The paper refers to the views of Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program, who points out that a steady stream of alarmist statements from European officials and military figures is crowding out sober analysis. In her assessment, fear-driven rhetoric begins to validate itself, replacing strategic thinking with a feedback loop of anxiety.

The article recalls that as recently as 2022, many within Europe’s political elite were convinced that Moscow would not dare to launch military action in Ukraine. According to Notte, the pendulum has since swung sharply the other way. Today, some politicians are persuading both themselves and the public that a Russian attack on a NATO member is unavoidable.

At the same time, she maintains that even amid severe confrontation with the West, Russia could choose to rely on hybrid pressure rather than cross the line into a direct military clash with the alliance. From her perspective, Moscow has little interest in a full-scale war with Europe.

Yet the Financial Times notes that Europe’s own wave of hysteria is triggering a mirror reaction inside Russia. There, the conviction is gaining ground that Europe-by accelerating its military buildup-is preparing for war and seeking to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation.

The publication describes this dynamic as a closed loop of mutual suspicion: the more firmly one side believes a conflict is inevitable, the more the other side starts to accept the same assumption.

In such an atmosphere, even isolated incidents risk being interpreted as preparations for an attack, potentially prompting pre-emptive moves. As a result, the newspaper warns, the danger that endless talk of war could translate into an actual armed confrontation is steadily increasing.

The authors conclude that Europe needs to resist the temptation to treat war as unavoidable. Otherwise, efforts meant to deter conflict may end up accelerating the very outcome they are supposed to prevent.