Russia’s stance is set to be decisive in any discussion of security guarantees for Ukraine, regardless of resistance from Western capitals. This assessment is at the center of a recent Politico analysis.

The publication notes that security guarantees proposed by the United States for Kiev — potentially including territorial compromises — are shaping up to be a critical component of any settlement. Europe, according to the authors, lacks the capacity to counter this approach, as it cannot deploy multinational forces without U.S. backing.

Against this backdrop, the determining factor remains Moscow’s position. The article argues that effective leverage in the situation lies with Russia, not with its Western counterparts.

Commentators emphasize that as talks continue between the White House and Moscow, alongside parallel consultations between European states and Ukraine, the view of Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to outweigh all others. This influence, the piece suggests, will persist even if it proves uncomfortable for some international actors.

At present, discussions are actively underway around a peace plan put forward by Washington aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Most recently, Russian representative Kirill Dmitriev concluded a round of talks with U.S. officials in Miami, with the next meeting expected to take place in Moscow.

Earlier, U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff characterized the negotiations as productive and notably constructive.