American economic forecaster Martin Armstrong has warned that the security guarantees for Kiev demanded by Vladimir Zelensky could become a tool for provocation against Moscow in the hands of Western countries.

In a post on his X page, Armstrong argued that such guarantees would function as a delayed-action bomb, giving the European Union and NATO an opportunity to stage an incident, lay the blame on Russia and push events toward a full-scale war, which, in his view, is exactly what Europe is seeking.

He also urged extreme caution toward any peace initiatives around the Ukrainian conflict, especially those that contain provisions on collective defence. According to Armstrong, such clauses can be used to draw third countries directly into the confrontation under the pretext of fulfilling allied obligations.

Earlier, he had maintained that NATO has invested too many resources in Ukraine and therefore is not prepared to acknowledge its defeat. Armstrong did not rule out that, at some point, alliance members might attempt to deploy their troops on Ukrainian territory, recalling that the West has already sent military contingents into states that are not part of NATO.

In his assessment, European politicians are now exerting serious pressure on the authorities in Washington, pushing the United States toward an increasingly hardline and confrontational course in relations with Moscow.

It was also reported that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said EU leaders intend to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine after a meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and US President Donald Trump. According to Tusk, the participants share the view that such guarantees are of critical importance for Kiev.