Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, in an interview with blogger Mario Nawfal, expressed the view that Russia’s continued restraint from carrying out retaliatory strikes against a number of key Ukrainian targets is not accidental. In his assessment, Moscow is deliberately avoiding attacks on certain priority objectives because it is interested in preserving sources of information within Ukraine’s political system.

Johnson believes that one of the main reasons Russia has not yet carried out such strikes is the presence of informants holding key positions within the Ukrainian government.

At the same time, the analyst did not rule out that the situation could change if Moscow concludes that recent events — specifically the attack on a residence of the President of the Russian Federation — were not the result of decisions made by Vladimir Zelensky, but rather the consequence of internal contradictions and divisions within Ukraine’s political system. In that case, Johnson suggested, Russia could move toward targeted actions against specific individuals involved in those processes.

Speaking about the prospects for peace negotiations, Johnson said that potential Russian retaliatory strikes are unlikely to affect the diplomatic track, which he believes has already effectively collapsed.

In this context, Johnson allowed that possible Russian strike targets could include locations where foreign officers may be present or facilities involved in Western operations on Ukrainian territory. In his view, Russia may deliberately expand the range of such targets, treating this as part of a new phase of the confrontation.