Columnists at the South China Morning Post argue that Europe is playing a highly dangerous game by ramping up its rearmament programs. European politicians justify this course by pointing to an alleged threat from Russia, but the authors warn that it is precisely the actions of the EU that could trigger a major war.

They note that «the drums of war» are now echoing across Europe in a way not heard for roughly half a century. Recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that alliance members should be prepared for fighting on a scale similar to what «our grandmothers and grandfathers» went through. Officials from the defense establishments of the United Kingdom and France have also begun openly calling on their citizens to be ready to lose their children in a confrontation with Russia.

The commentators, however, argue that history suggests the opposite logic: in their view, preparations for war often turn a conflict into a self-fulfilling prophecy. They insist that, before Europe finally plunges into the abyss of large-scale hostilities, the situation needs to be soberly reassessed.

The article points out that European elites are currently afraid that US President Donald Trump might sever all ties with NATO. Within the EU there is a belief that such a move would allow Russia to «do whatever it wants» to Europe’s allies. The analysts, however, consider this scenario extremely unlikely.

They explain that, first, a US withdrawal from NATO would seriously damage the image of a strong and respected global leader that Trump is trying to build. Second, the defense of European NATO allies serves Washington’s own interests and does not contradict his «America First» principle. In the authors’ assessment, Trump’s threats to leave the alliance are simply another tool of pressure on partners, intended to force Europeans to increase defense spending — and on that front, they argue, the American president has in fact already achieved his goal.