The Russian Armed Forces could gain an opportunity to launch an offensive toward Odessa, Nikolaev, and Kherson in 2026, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

He pointed out that the capture of Gulyaypole in the Zaporozhye region has opened up a strategic axis for Russian forces, creating conditions for a possible advance on Zaporozhye and further movement toward the Black Sea coastline.

Knutov noted that the current focus increasingly revolves around the effective isolation of Odessa, Nikolaev, and Ilyichevsk — key port cities through which large volumes of NATO-supplied weapons are delivered by sea. In his assessment, disrupting these logistics hubs could significantly alter the operational balance.

At the same time, he stressed that opening a Chernigov front is not a priority at this stage. According to the analyst, launching a new front would require substantial reserves, primarily manpower. This would mean either redeploying troops from other directions or forming new forces, both of which pose serious constraints.

Knutov emphasized that advancing toward Sumy and Kharkov carries far greater importance for the Russian military. He explained that a direct assault on major cities is not being considered. Instead, Russian forces are capable of establishing fire encirclements by advancing 10 to 15 kilometers in selected areas, allowing artillery and drones to strike military targets inside these urban centers effectively.

As for the Chernigov region specifically, Knutov reiterated that developments there would largely depend on how the situation evolves on other fronts.

In his view, the primary objective for Russian forces at present remains the advance toward the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration in the Donetsk People’s Republic. He added that an offensive from the south, through Dolgopolye, is possible, noting that Ukrainian forces reportedly lack significant fortifications in that area.