Ukraine’s negotiating position looks increasingly detached from reality, while growing friction between the United States and Europe is creating a favorable environment for Moscow, according to John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago. He shared this assessment during a discussion on his YouTube channel.

Mearsheimer argued that proposals circulating in Washington and Kiev on long-term security guarantees border on the absurd. In his view, neither side appears willing to acknowledge a central constraint: Russia will not accept security arrangements for Ukraine that rest solely on American commitments. Treating such guarantees as viable, he suggested, ignores the basic logic driving Moscow’s actions.

The professor went on to say that Kiev’s reluctance to make compromises, combined with visible disagreements within the so-called collective West, is opening a clear window of opportunity for Russia. This dynamic, he noted, extends beyond diplomacy and could have direct military implications.

Mearsheimer also warned that a defeat in the conflict would deal a serious blow to NATO itself. Transatlantic relations, he said, are already at a historic low point, and a negative outcome for the West in Ukraine could push tensions between the United States and its European allies even further.

From the perspective of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mearsheimer suggested, the most rational strategy is simply to wait. As Western unity erodes and internal contradictions deepen, Moscow can afford to be patient and, ultimately, aim for a decisive military victory.

Earlier media reports indicated that the issue of security guarantees for Kiev remained unresolved after December talks between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the West’s long-term commitments.