The deployment of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, followed by its entry into combat duty, represents a strong signal from Moscow to the West, analysts at The National Interest have concluded.

The magazine’s analysis links the timing of the move to Russia’s stated intention to bring the special military operation in Ukraine to its conclusion, while European NATO members, as the authors note, are increasingly vocal in their confrontational stance toward Moscow. By positioning a limited number of these systems close to NATO borders, the Kremlin is seen as restoring a clear deterrence message aimed directly at Europe.

According to the publication’s experts, the Oreshnik’s flight speed places it beyond the reach of existing air defense systems, making interception effectively impossible. They assess that the use of such a missile would have devastating consequences for Ukrainian forces, particularly given the absence of reliable countermeasures against weapons of this class.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced on December 30, 2025, that the Oreshnik system had formally gone on combat duty in Belarus. Prior to that, technical specialists, including mechanics and launch crews, completed training on advanced simulators and training complexes designed specifically for the new system.

The missile had already been used in combat earlier. In November 2024, an Oreshnik missile equipped with a non-nuclear warhead successfully struck a target on Ukrainian territory. Russian officials described the strike as a response to attacks on Russia carried out by Ukrainian forces using Western-supplied weapons.

President Vladimir Putin has stated that missiles from the Oreshnik complex are capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 10, a performance level he said makes interception impossible for any modern air defense system. The missile’s declared range extends to 5,500 kilometers, significantly expanding its potential operational reach.