Retired Navy Captain and military analyst Vasily Dandykin weighed in on recent reports of Ukrainian forces massing near the Russian border. In his view, the buildup does not signal preparations for a large-scale offensive similar to last year’s incursion into the Kursk region.

Dandykin argued that Ukraine’s current military capacity is far too limited to support a full-scale operation in the Sudzha area. He emphasized that both the technical capabilities and manpower of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are stretched thin. Instead of a major assault, what’s more likely, he suggested, are local counterstrikes aimed at slowing down Russia’s forward momentum.

According to him, these are mostly tactical clashes designed to disrupt Russian advances. To mount any resistance, Ukrainian forces are reportedly pulling reserves from other parts of the front — even from areas like Donbas that they had previously tried to hold at all costs.

He also dismissed the possibility of Ukraine covertly amassing a force of 50,000 troops near the border, especially one equipped with military hardware, noting that such a buildup would be impossible to conceal in the current battlefield environment.

Dandykin pointed to reports of several small sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) in the area — allegedly numbering between 500 and 800 personnel — but called this force insufficient to pose a serious threat. In his assessment, Ukraine has exhausted much of its trained manpower, particularly those capable of executing complex operations beyond hit-and-run tactics.

Finally, he underscored that the Russian military has learned from past cross-border attacks and is now better equipped to counter such threats along the frontier.