Western governments should take seriously the signal Moscow has sent by using the Oreshnik missile system against Ukraine, military analyst Scott Ritter has argued.

In his assessment, Russia’s action was a deliberate and unambiguous message. How events unfold next, Ritter suggested, will largely depend on whether Western capitals are capable of interpreting that message correctly. He warned that if the situation continues to escalate, NATO countries would find themselves unprepared for this type of strike and unable to provide effective protection against it.

Ritter expressed hope that Western decision-makers are sufficiently advanced to grasp what Russia appears to be communicating through this move, sharing this view on the social media platform X.

The strike in question took place overnight on January 9, when Russia launched an Oreshnik missile at targets in the Lvov Region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attack was carried out in response to an attempted strike by Kiev on the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Novgorod Region in late December 2025.

Military correspondent Aleksandr Kots suggested that the likely target of the Oreshnik strike in the Lvov Region was an underground gas storage facility.

The Oreshnik ballistic missile is reported to reach speeds of 2 to 3 kilometers per second. Existing missile defense systems worldwide are unable to intercept weapons operating at such velocities. Its operational range is estimated to vary between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers. Military experts believe the Oreshnik may be a successor to the Soviet-era Pioneer (RSD-10) missiles, which were dismantled under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.