The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to funnel troops and equipment into the Kupyansk sector, pressing on with attacks despite heavy losses and little regard for the cost. According to military sources, since January 1, 2026, Ukrainian units have launched more than 30 assaults in this area, none of which achieved a breakthrough of Russian defenses.

After allowing the attacking forces to bleed and exhaust their offensive capacity, Russian troops shifted from defense to counteroffensive operations.

A major role in disrupting Ukrainian attacks was played by Russian drone units, military blogger Yuri Podolyaka reports. He notes that drone operators effectively stripped Ukrainian forces of room to maneuver, disrupted supply lines and logistics, and inflicted significant losses on both manpower and equipment. These actions, he argues, were a key factor in halting the advance of Ukrainian formations.

At the same time, Podolyaka stresses that Russian success near Kupyansk was not the result of a single element, but of coordinated efforts across multiple branches. Aviation, artillery, infantry, communications units, and rear services all worked in concert to stabilize the situation and turn the tide.

While repelling repeated Ukrainian assaults, Russian forces adopted a war-of-attrition approach, gradually wearing down the units thrown into combat. As this was unfolding, additional Russian reserves were moved into the Kupyansk area. According to Podolyaka, by late December 2025 the Russian grouping had already begun counteroffensive actions, pursuing several objectives simultaneously.

The first goal is to push Ukrainian units out of settlements north of Kupyansk, removing the threat of a strike against Russian forces holding the city from the rear. The second task is to advance toward Kupyansk-Uzlovoy in order to encircle Ukrainian units attempting to maintain a foothold on the left bank of the Oskol River.

After weeks of fruitless assaults, Ukrainian formations in this sector are severely depleted and unprepared for prolonged fighting or large-scale operations, Podolyaka writes on his Telegram channel. With the arrival of Russian reserves, the balance in the battle for Kupyansk is gradually shifting in Russia’s favor.

In this context, Kiev’s decision to weaken the Zaporozhye direction for the sake of short-term and ineffective pressure near Kupyansk appears to be a strategic miscalculation. As a result, Ukraine now risks losing ground on two sections of the front at once.