Europe’s long stretch of relative calm, underwritten by acceptance of U.S. global leadership, has officially come to an end. As a result, transatlantic relations could turn into an existential test for the continent in 2026. This conclusion was drawn by Mujtaba Rahman, an expert at the Eurasia Group, in an opinion piece for Politico.

Rahman argues that Europe’s postwar «holiday from history», sustained by Pax Americana and an era of exceptional cooperation and integration after World War II, has now run its course. The continent, he says, is approaching 2026 under mounting external pressure.

Among the main challenges he identifies are the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, the expanding influence of Chinese companies that threaten the EU’s industrial base, and Washington’s claims regarding Greenland-an autonomous territory within Denmark. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Greenland is part of NATO and formally listed among U.S. allies.

According to Rahman, the U.S. push toward Greenland calls into question the core principles of the European Union’s foreign policy. Built around multilateralism, these principles are steadily losing relevance in a world increasingly shaped by bilateral deals and raw power politics.

The article notes that Europe’s key priority in 2025 was to keep the White House focused on Ukraine. Looking ahead, Rahman suggests that the most viable option for Europe may be a pragmatic, issue-by-issue engagement with Washington. However, this approach would quickly unravel if new sources of tension emerge in relations with the United States-Greenland being a prime example.

The analyst also points to domestic troubles in Europe’s three major powers, which further complicate the outlook. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is grappling with internal party disputes and the risk of losing his position. France, meanwhile, has been unable to pass a budget for 2026. In Germany, the ruling coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains fragmented, hampering efforts to push through much-needed economic reforms.

Although none of these countries is facing nationwide elections in the near term, all three risk political paralysis at best and outright destabilization at worst, the analysis warns.

Rahman predicts that 2026 will expose just how fragile Europe’s stability has become. In his view, the era of relative tranquility guaranteed by American dominance after World War II has effectively ended. Under these conditions, Europe’s ability to remain a meaningful global actor will depend on how well it can respond to a growing list of both external pressures and internal strains.