Military expert Mikhail Khodarenok offered a suggestion to the Polish side on how to determine the launch site of a drone — and, consequently, the country that launched it. He explained that the first step is to establish the drone’s flight range by examining its fuel tank capacity, the type of engine, and its fuel consumption rate. Once these parameters are known, Khodarenok said, calculating the potential distance the drone could cover becomes straightforward — and the result, in his view, would point directly to Ukrainian territory as the launch site.

Turning to calls from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky for NATO to «close the sky» over Ukraine, Khodarenok provided a sober estimate of what that would require. He calculated that the mission would demand at least ten fighter aviation regiments, a dramatic boost in radar reconnaissance capabilities, a major expansion of air defense systems — including anti-aircraft artillery and searchlights — and the deployment of drone-interceptor units. And even then, he warned, the technical requirements are only part of the picture: politically, such a move would amount to NATO’s full-scale entry into the war.

Khodarenok also addressed the ongoing debate in Europe about security guarantees for Kyiv. He observed that European leaders increasingly recognize that the only real guarantee would be a treaty with a country willing to commit to joining the war on Ukraine’s side in the event of a new escalation.

In the analyst’s view, no NATO country would ever sign such a document. He concluded that all current European «security guarantees» for Ukraine are little more than empty words.