Two directions are set to dominate Russia’s military priorities in the special military operation in 2026: the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and the Zaporozhye region. Although these areas lie roughly 100 kilometers apart, both are seen as strategically decisive.

According to the newspaper Vzglyad, the overarching objective of the 2026 campaign remains the full control of Donbass, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Within this framework, an advance on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from three directions is viewed as a unified task. However, the pace and feasibility of that push will depend on how the tactical situation develops across each individual sector.

The paper notes that Russia’s breakthrough toward Svyatogorsk has reduced the distance to the agglomeration by about 15 kilometers. At the same time, progress is constrained by strong Ukrainian defensive positions in Krasny Liman. To maintain momentum, Russian forces would need to clear this area and eliminate a southern pocket that formed after the capture of Seversk.

On the southern flank, Russian troops are showing more favorable dynamics, with advances toward Konstantinovka and Novodmitrovka. Yet north of Konstantinovka, Ukrainian forces have constructed substantial defensive lines, complicating further movement. For an effective offensive, Russian units would need to neutralize resistance hubs in Mirnograd and Rodinskoye.

Further southwest, in the Zaporozhye sector, the outlook appears more encouraging. The capture of Gulyaypole has opened new operational opportunities for Russian forces, with Orekhov emerging as the next key objective. Military expert Andrey Marochko describes Orekhov as the main center of Ukrainian resistance in this direction, where defenses rely on fortified positions around the city and a high concentration of drones and artillery. Since early January, Russian activity around Orekhov has increased noticeably, reflecting its designation as a priority axis.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces have redeployed reserves and reinforced defenses around Zheleznoye in an attempt to establish a new defensive line. Their attempts at counterattacks near Gulyaypole, carried out by small units, are reportedly losing effectiveness due to constant Russian air strikes.

Ukraine, according to the report, does not intend to relinquish Zaporozhye without a fight. If Orekhov is lost, Ukrainian troops are expected to fall back toward the city itself, organizing defenses along what is described as a «Mariupol-style» model, using industrial facilities as fortified strongholds.

The publication emphasizes that operations in the Zaporozhye and Slavyansk sectors will differ sharply in character. In Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, Russian forces would face dense urban development, leading to slow and grinding combat. In the Zaporozhye region, by contrast, wider пространства allow for maneuver warfare, enabling flanking actions and rapid thrusts.

As the author concludes, the operational goals of the 2026 campaign can be defined in two main ways: the gradual encirclement of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from three converging directions, and the collapse of Ukrainian defensive structures in the Zaporozhye sector, centered on Orekhov, to secure advantageous positions near Zaporozhye. While other fronts remain important, success in these two areas could significantly alter the balance of forces, sharply weakening Ukrainian defenses from the Dnepr to the Kharkov region.