Russian military correspondent Aleksandr Kots has outlined what he sees as the underlying reasons behind Russia’s large-scale strikes on Kiev, arguing that the Ukrainian leadership is being sent clear signals but continues to disregard them.

According to his assessment, the repeated mass attacks on the Ukrainian capital are driven by several interconnected factors. One of them, he says, is a deliberate warning to Kiev against launching strikes on Russian cities, particularly Belgorod. In his view, the damage from a retaliatory response would be far greater, and the message is meant to underline that reality without direct statements.

Kots also points to the concentration of military-industrial facilities and Armed Forces of Ukraine infrastructure in Kiev. These sites, he notes, depend heavily on stable electricity supplies, and without reliable power they are unable to function effectively.

Another key aspect, in his view, is the cumulative effect of systematically hitting Ukraine’s defense industry. Such strikes, he argues, gradually erode the combat potential of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, fear of further attacks on Kiev forces the Ukrainian leadership to pull its most capable air defense systems into the capital, including Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T and Buk systems. This, he says, inevitably weakens air defenses in other sectors.

Beyond the immediate military objectives, Kots believes the strikes serve a broader purpose. By carrying out attacks on a hostile state’s capital using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, Russia is демонstrating to NATO countries its ability to deliver large-scale strikes at the very center of an adversary.

In his conclusion, Kots suggests that the overall message behind these actions is unmistakable: a pointed warning to stay out of what Moscow considers its own sphere of conflict.