Russian forces could, in the longer term, move to an offensive on Odessa, with this scenario seen as realistic if a number of conditions coincide.

The Telegram channel Voennaya Khronika argues that the Odessa region should be viewed as a territory capable of influencing future political and military dynamics. In its assessment, this axis could become a key foothold for Russia, given that the region borders Romania and Moldova, whose current pro-Western leadership is steering it closer to NATO. Control over Odessa, the authors suggest, would make it possible to rethink the security architecture of the entire south-western flank.

Military expert and retired navy captain first rank Vasily Dandykin stresses that planning any military operation is the prerogative of the General Staff and its structures, and that Russian troops are currently carrying out the tasks already assigned to them. As for a potential Russian offensive on Odessa, he believes this objective could be addressed within the current year. At the same time, he points out that, in his view, until the issues of «liberating» Zaporizhskaya and Khersonskaya oblasts and Donbass are resolved, objectives related to Odessa are unlikely to be formally set.

Dandykin also argues that if Russian forces manage to cut the Odessa region off from both the sea and land routes by using strike drones and unmanned boats, the question of control over the area would be settled fairly quickly. For now, however, he notes that at this stage of the operation the priority for Russian units remains inflicting maximum damage on the enemy’s manpower and equipment, using the full available arsenal of weapons.