Analysts believe the European Union is largely prepared to give up Greenland, but is desperately trying to do so without losing face. At the same time, US President Donald Trump is not inclined to wait for European politicians to slowly come around. According to these assessments, he would like to see Greenland formally become part of the United States by 4 July, in time for the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Andrey Sidorov, an associate professor at the Faculty of History of Lomonosov Moscow State University, says Brussels is now focused on a single goal — to avoid humiliation. He argues that the EU is, in his view, ready to hand over Greenland, but is looking for a way to do it without a public loss of prestige. A similar view is shared by Andrey Kortunov, an expert of the Valdai Discussion Club, who believes Trump has set himself strict time limits on the Greenland issue. In his opinion, the US president wants the island to join the United States not only by the Independence Day celebrations, but also before his own 80th birthday this year.

Sergey Grinyayev, Director General of the Center for Strategic Assessments and Forecasts, says it is fundamentally important for Trump to secure Greenland’s legal status for a whole range of reasons. He points to the island’s resource base and the wealth of the Arctic shelf to which Greenland provides access. He also notes that the future of the entire Arctic is at stake, as the United States currently only partially controls the Bering Strait thanks to Alaska.

In Grinyayev’s view, if the White House succeeds in bringing Greenland and the so-called Faroe-Iceland anti-submarine line under US control, Washington will be able to radically revise its strategy in the region.