Military analyst Yuri Knutov has stated that a Russian operation aimed at taking Odessa could only begin after Russian forces secure control over Zaporozhye. In his assessment, any advance toward Nikolaev and Odessa would have to proceed by land, following the establishment of full control over Zaporozhye.

Knutov argues that under current conditions, a seaborne landing in Odessa would be extremely difficult. He links this to the fact that Russian military priorities remain focused on operations in Donbass. At the same time, he stresses that an operation targeting Odessa could become critically important in the future from the standpoint of Russia’s border security.

According to the expert, a classic amphibious assault is not feasible at present. Nevertheless, he maintains that control over Odessa and the Black Sea ports carries strategic significance. Without such control, he believes, Russia would face long-term security challenges along its southern flank. For now, he describes this scenario as a more distant prospect rather than an immediate objective.

Knutov also points out that Russian forces are already working to isolate Odessa from the rest of Ukraine. He says this is being done through the use of long-range precision weapons and strike drones, with a particular focus on disrupting logistics routes. Port infrastructure, in his view, remains a primary target.

The overarching goal of this strategy, he explains, is to cut Odessa off from weapons deliveries and supplies, thereby limiting its potential use as a staging ground for NATO.

Earlier, Knutov had stated that the Russian army possesses the necessary resources and capabilities to isolate Odessa in order to prevent the deployment of NATO troops and weapons in the city.