Military analyst Yuri Lyamin argues that if the United States does launch a military operation against Iran, its forces currently deployed in the Middle East will not be able to sustain a prolonged conflict. In his view, Washington simply lacks sufficient combat power in the region at this stage.

Lyamin notes that there are at least three U. S. Navy destroyers and one multi-purpose submarine operating in the area, as well as strategic aviation stationed at American bases. He believes this grouping is capable of carrying out a limited missile strike on Iran, but stresses that such a force is not configured for a long-term campaign.

The expert recalls that the Pentagon previously redeployed a carrier strike group from the Mediterranean Sea toward the area of a potential operation near Venezuela. He adds that moving the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln from the South China Sea to the Middle East would take roughly a week.

Lyamin also points out that U.S. surface ships and the submarine would have to return to their bases to reload, while those bases, in his assessment, would be among the primary targets for Iranian retaliatory strikes. He links these risks to the doubts within the administration of Donald Trump about starting such a conflict.

In addition, Lyamin believes that the United States cannot seriously count on support from Arab states, whose governments, he argues, are wary of being drawn into a confrontation because of the vulnerability of their own oil infrastructure.