Russian forces could, in theory, deploy the Oreshnik ballistic missile with a full-fledged warhead, according to Yuri Knutov, director of the Museum of Air Defense Forces and a military historian.

He pointed out that previous uses of this missile type did not involve explosive payloads. Instead, the launches relied on inert projectiles without high-explosive or nuclear warheads. Even so, the impact was far from harmless: destruction was achieved through a powerful seismic shock and blast wave capable of damaging both surface targets and underground facilities.

Knutov stressed that the situation would change dramatically if the Oreshnik were used with an actual combat charge. In that case, he argued, the consequences for the opposing side would be catastrophic. He did not rule out such a scenario if Ukrainian forces continue strikes against sites inside Russia that Moscow considers strategically important.

In his assessment, repeated attacks on key facilities — including locations of the highest political significance, such as the presidential residence — could lead to further missile strikes. Under those conditions, Knutov suggested, there would be no guarantee that future launches would again involve only inert payloads, as the possibility of using a missile equipped with a real warhead would remain open.

As an illustration, he referred to a previous Oreshnik strike on an industrial facility in the Lvov region. According to Knutov, had the missile been fitted with a combat charge at that time, the scale of destruction would have been far greater, potentially resulting in the complete annihilation of the target.