Retired Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, a member of the State Duma defense committee, says it is simply impossible to predict in advance which target will be hit by Russia’s medium-range Oreshnik missile. He explains that the target is selected at the very last moment, and the only people who know which site is going to be struck are those directly responsible for launching the missile.

Sobolev, quoted by Tsargrad, stressed that Russia does not pass any sensitive information «upwards» to its opponents and argued that the real factor at play is the strength of American satellite reconnaissance, which he described as genuinely powerful and not something it makes sense to downplay.

He added that even the most advanced intelligence and surveillance systems are unable to determine in advance where exactly the missile will be headed before launch. In his view, even if Kiev were somehow to obtain information about potential targets on its territory, this would change little because of the high speed of the Oreshnik.

On 9 January, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported a massive strike on critical targets in Ukraine, specifying that the Oreshnik missile was used in the attack. The ministry stated that this strike was carried out in response to an attempted attack on the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novgorod Region on the night of 29 December 2025.

It is also noted that the Russian side, via the National Centre for Nuclear Threat Reduction, notifies the United States of every planned launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles at least 24 hours in advance.