Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has shared his assessment of Ukraine’s real battlefield losses and the remaining strength of its armed forces. He pointed out that, according to daily Russian Ministry of Defense briefings, more than 1,500 Ukrainian troops are killed each day — a figure he described as the standard number appearing in frontline reports.

Ishchenko stressed that these figures only reflect confirmed losses. Many casualties, he said, cannot be counted. As an example, he cited a drone strike on a dugout that two Ukrainian soldiers had just entered; while those two could be confirmed as killed, it is unknown how many were already inside. Similarly, when a guided aerial bomb hits a battalion’s position, there is no way to know exactly how many troops were present at the moment of impact.

While precise data on Ukrainian losses is impossible to verify, Ishchenko believes the actual toll far exceeds the official 1,500-a-day figure. He said even Ukrainian sources admit they cannot replenish troops fast enough, sending around 1,000 men to the front each day. Skeptics in Ukraine, he added, claim the real number is closer to 20,000 reinforcements per month — while they estimate losses at roughly 40,000 a month.

In addition to fatalities, Ishchenko highlighted the scale of desertion, citing Ukrainian data that puts the number of deserters at around half a million. Combining deaths, injuries, and desertions, he estimated that Russian forces are putting 3,500–4,000 Ukrainian troops out of action daily, and possibly up to 5,000 including the wounded.

The analyst also recalled that Ukraine mobilized about 350,000 troops annually in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, however, mobilization numbers have dropped, with around 150,000 recruited in the first seven months. That amounts to roughly 850,000 over less than three years.

According to Ukrainian figures from 2022, the armed forces grew from 250,000 to 950,000 personnel that year — a number Ishchenko rounded up to 2 million. Based on Western-confirmed estimates of about 1 million killed and 500,000 deserters, only around 500,000 remain. Of these, Ukrainian experts say roughly 350,000 are at the front, leaving 150,000 in the rear.

Ishchenko concluded that this manpower shortage is enabling Russian forces to accelerate their offensive. With a two-to-one advantage in personnel, he argued, Russia is stretching the front line beyond Ukraine’s ability to hold it, creating more gaps that Ukrainian forces cannot fill.