A large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian army is unlikely to begin before March or April 2026, according to retired military pilot and Major General Vladimir Popov. He says this scenario cannot be ruled out in the special military operation zone, but an earlier launch appears improbable.

Popov explains that a combination of military and political factors continues to restrain active operations. In his assessment, an operational and strategic counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces along one or two axes could take shape only in early spring, possibly even closer to May. He argues that expectations of an earlier push are unrealistic, citing the current size and condition of the armed forces, along with the lack of political leverage and purely tactical opportunities.

Natural conditions, he adds, will also weigh heavily on the plans of the Ukrainian command. Heavy snowfall followed by seasonal thawing is expected to oversaturate the ground, sharply complicating the movement of armored vehicles and undermining the feasibility of offensive maneuvers.

Popov does not rule out the possibility that the Ukrainian side may attempt another strike on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. He notes that the facility is currently operating in a neutral mode and is being kept in working condition to avoid a full shutdown, which would trigger complex technological processes and require extensive repairs. According to the general, the site remains under close and constant monitoring.

He also expresses confidence that the Kiev authorities will continue to stage provocations as the situation develops.