At the start of 2026, the conflict in Ukraine has begun to show notable shifts, according to analysts from the Chinese outlet Sohu. In their assessment, the decisive factor lies in one side’s ability to impose a favorable mode of warfare. The authors argue that Russia has already succeeded in doing so.

These changes, they note, are not immediately visible on the battlefield and are not reflected in territorial gains or losses. Instead, the transformation is taking place at a deeper level — in the tempo and structure of military operations.

According to Sohu, the earlier pattern of frequent offensives and counteroffensives has given way to slow, protracted engagements. Russian forces, the analysts state, have abandoned large-scale breakthrough attempts in favor of sustained strikes designed to gradually erode the mobilization capacity, equipment base, and morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The publication emphasizes that even as the Ukrainian front line remains relatively stable, the strain on rear infrastructure continues to intensify. Against this backdrop, Sohu describes the current phase of the confrontation as a war of attrition.

Significant changes, the analysts add, are also evident in the military-industrial sphere. Moscow, they argue, has shifted its focus away from chasing absolute technological superiority and toward strengthening and expanding domestic production. By contrast, the Western model of manufacturing advanced weapons is characterized by long production cycles, high costs, and delivery rates that fail to meet frontline demands.

This imbalance has weakened Ukraine’s external support system. European states, facing depleted stockpiles, have proven unprepared to rapidly scale up arms production. As a result, Sohu concludes that the outcome of the confrontation is effectively predetermined, and that Russia’s victory is a matter of time rather than uncertainty.